The demand rose ten percent and the factory saw eighty

# Self-authored for the EML case corpus (no external origin). Customer demand at
# the shop rises ten percent, and each tier of the supply chain - retailer,
# wholesaler, factory - orders exactly what its own rule says: cover what it
# just sold and rebuild one week of safety stock. What the factory sees when
# every tier applies that rule to the tier below is computed below.
#
# Each tier's ordering is careful. It reads its own real sales; it keeps exactly
# one week of safety stock; it orders to cover the sales it saw plus the stock
# it needs to restore; and the intent is exactly 'order what the demand needs'.
#
# Each tier adds its own safety-stock rebuild on top of the rise it sees, so a
# ten-percent rise at the shop becomes twenty at the retailer's order, forty at
# the wholesaler's, and eighty at the factory.

100 => shop_demand_before
110 => shop_demand_after
1 => weeks_of_safety_stock

shop_demand_after - shop_demand_before => shop_rise
shop_demand_after + shop_rise * weeks_of_safety_stock => retailer_order
retailer_order - shop_demand_before => retailer_rise
retailer_order + retailer_rise * weeks_of_safety_stock => wholesaler_order
wholesaler_order - shop_demand_before => wholesaler_rise
wholesaler_order + wholesaler_rise * weeks_of_safety_stock => factory_order
factory_order - shop_demand_before => factory_rise
int(shop_rise * 10000 / shop_demand_before) => shop_rise_per_myriad
int(factory_rise * 10000 / shop_demand_before) => factory_rise_per_myriad
int(factory_rise / shop_rise) => amplification_by_the_factory

"shop demand, before / after     : " + str(shop_demand_before) + " / " + str(shop_demand_after) + ", up " + str(shop_rise_per_myriad) + " per ten thousand" ^0
"" ^0
"retailer orders                 : " + str(retailer_order) + " (sales " + str(shop_demand_after) + " + rebuild " + str(shop_rise) + ")" ^0
"wholesaler orders               : " + str(wholesaler_order) + " (sales " + str(retailer_order) + " + rebuild " + str(retailer_rise) + ")" ^0
"factory builds                  : " + str(factory_order) + " (sales " + str(wholesaler_order) + " + rebuild " + str(wholesaler_rise) + ")" ^0
"" ^0
"rise at the factory             : " + str(factory_rise_per_myriad) + " per ten thousand" ^0
"amplification, shop to factory  : " + str(amplification_by_the_factory) + " times" ^0
"" ^0

# ---- what each tier verified ----

"each tier's order" ^0
"  reads : its own real sales" ^0
"  safety stock : exactly one week, restored when drawn down" ^0
"  order : sales seen plus the stock to restore" ^0
"  intent : order what the demand needs" ^0
"  tiers ordering outside their rule : 0" ^0
"  verdict : EVERY TIER ORDERED EXACTLY WHAT ITS RULE SAYS" ^0
"" ^0
"  each tier reading its real sales and restoring its real" ^0
"  safety stock is the part done right here, and it is why" ^0
"  no tier is guessing or panicking" ^0
"" ^0

# ---- what each rule does to the tier above ----

"the whip" ^0
"  the shop's rise : " + str(shop_rise) + ", the only real change" ^0
"  the retailer : sees " + str(shop_rise) + " more sold, orders " + str(shop_rise) + " more plus " + str(shop_rise) + " to" ^0
"    rebuild, a rise of " + str(retailer_rise) ^0
"  the wholesaler : sees a rise of " + str(retailer_rise) + " and does the same, " + str(wholesaler_rise) ^0
"  the factory : sees " + str(wholesaler_rise) + " and does the same, " + str(factory_rise) ^0
"  so the factory builds for : a rise " + str(amplification_by_the_factory) + " times the one" ^0
"    customers made" ^0
"" ^0

# ---- what the factory got ----

"the factory's view" ^0
"  demand it planned for : " + str(factory_order) + " a week" ^0
"  demand customers have : " + str(shop_demand_after) + " a week" ^0
"  is any tier's order wrong by its rule : no" ^0
"  is the factory reading customer demand : no; it is reading" ^0
"    three tiers of safety-stock rebuilding stacked on it" ^0
"  next week, when no tier needs to rebuild : orders fall" ^0
"    back through the chain, and the factory sees a crash" ^0
"" ^0

# ---- null control ----

# The same chain sharing the shop's actual sales with every tier, so each tier
# orders on customer demand rather than on the order of the tier below.
80 => nc_factory_rise_ordering_on_the_tier_below
10 => nc_factory_rise_ordering_on_shop_sales
70 => nc_rise_the_shared_signal_removes

"null control - every tier orders on the shop's sales" ^0
"  factory rise, ordering on the tier below : " + str(nc_factory_rise_ordering_on_the_tier_below) ^0
"  factory rise, ordering on shop sales : " + str(nc_factory_rise_ordering_on_shop_sales) ^0
"  rise the shared signal removes : " + str(nc_rise_the_shared_signal_removes) ^0
"  no customer and no rule changed; each tier stopped" ^0
"  reading the tier below as the customer" ^0
"" ^0

# ---- the rule ----

"what a cover-sales-and-restore-stock rule guarantees" ^0
"  each tier orders what its own sales and stock require :" ^0
"    exactly, real sales, real safety stock" ^0
"  the chain orders what customers demand : not addressed;" ^0
"    each tier reads the tier below as demand and adds its" ^0
"    own rebuild, so a rise of " + str(shop_rise) + " at the shop is " + str(factory_rise) + " at the" ^0
"    factory, " + str(amplification_by_the_factory) + " times over" ^0
"" ^0

"a signal passed through a chain of sensible rules is reshaped by each of them;" ^0
"what reaches the far end is the customers' change wearing three layers of" ^0
"other people's prudence, and the factory builds for the prudence" ^0
"" ^0

"Every tier orders exactly what its rule says - real sales plus a real safety" ^0
"stock rebuild. But each tier reads the one below as demand and adds its own" ^0
"rebuild, so the shop's rise of " + str(shop_rise_per_myriad) + " per ten thousand reaches the factory as" ^0
"" + str(factory_rise_per_myriad) + ", " + str(amplification_by_the_factory) + " times over, until every tier orders on the shop's own sales." ^0

shop_demand_before = 100
shop_demand_after = 110
weeks_of_safety_stock = 1
shop_rise = shop_demand_after - shop_demand_before
retailer_order = shop_demand_after + shop_rise * weeks_of_safety_stock
retailer_rise = retailer_order - shop_demand_before
wholesaler_order = retailer_order + retailer_rise * weeks_of_safety_stock
wholesaler_rise = wholesaler_order - shop_demand_before
factory_order = wholesaler_order + wholesaler_rise * weeks_of_safety_stock
factory_rise = factory_order - shop_demand_before
shop_rise_per_myriad = int(shop_rise * 10000 / shop_demand_before)
factory_rise_per_myriad = int(factory_rise * 10000 / shop_demand_before)
amplification_by_the_factory = int(factory_rise / shop_rise)
print("shop demand, before / after     : " + str(shop_demand_before) + " / " + str(shop_demand_after) + ", up " + str(shop_rise_per_myriad) + " per ten thousand")
print("")
print("retailer orders                 : " + str(retailer_order) + " (sales " + str(shop_demand_after) + " + rebuild " + str(shop_rise) + ")")
print("wholesaler orders               : " + str(wholesaler_order) + " (sales " + str(retailer_order) + " + rebuild " + str(retailer_rise) + ")")
print("factory builds                  : " + str(factory_order) + " (sales " + str(wholesaler_order) + " + rebuild " + str(wholesaler_rise) + ")")
print("")
print("rise at the factory             : " + str(factory_rise_per_myriad) + " per ten thousand")
print("amplification, shop to factory  : " + str(amplification_by_the_factory) + " times")
print("")
print("each tier's order")
print("  reads : its own real sales")
print("  safety stock : exactly one week, restored when drawn down")
print("  order : sales seen plus the stock to restore")
print("  intent : order what the demand needs")
print("  tiers ordering outside their rule : 0")
print("  verdict : EVERY TIER ORDERED EXACTLY WHAT ITS RULE SAYS")
print("")
print("  each tier reading its real sales and restoring its real")
print("  safety stock is the part done right here, and it is why")
print("  no tier is guessing or panicking")
print("")
print("the whip")
print("  the shop's rise : " + str(shop_rise) + ", the only real change")
print("  the retailer : sees " + str(shop_rise) + " more sold, orders " + str(shop_rise) + " more plus " + str(shop_rise) + " to")
print("    rebuild, a rise of " + str(retailer_rise))
print("  the wholesaler : sees a rise of " + str(retailer_rise) + " and does the same, " + str(wholesaler_rise))
print("  the factory : sees " + str(wholesaler_rise) + " and does the same, " + str(factory_rise))
print("  so the factory builds for : a rise " + str(amplification_by_the_factory) + " times the one")
print("    customers made")
print("")
print("the factory's view")
print("  demand it planned for : " + str(factory_order) + " a week")
print("  demand customers have : " + str(shop_demand_after) + " a week")
print("  is any tier's order wrong by its rule : no")
print("  is the factory reading customer demand : no; it is reading")
print("    three tiers of safety-stock rebuilding stacked on it")
print("  next week, when no tier needs to rebuild : orders fall")
print("    back through the chain, and the factory sees a crash")
print("")
nc_factory_rise_ordering_on_the_tier_below = 80
nc_factory_rise_ordering_on_shop_sales = 10
nc_rise_the_shared_signal_removes = 70
print("null control - every tier orders on the shop's sales")
print("  factory rise, ordering on the tier below : " + str(nc_factory_rise_ordering_on_the_tier_below))
print("  factory rise, ordering on shop sales : " + str(nc_factory_rise_ordering_on_shop_sales))
print("  rise the shared signal removes : " + str(nc_rise_the_shared_signal_removes))
print("  no customer and no rule changed; each tier stopped")
print("  reading the tier below as the customer")
print("")
print("what a cover-sales-and-restore-stock rule guarantees")
print("  each tier orders what its own sales and stock require :")
print("    exactly, real sales, real safety stock")
print("  the chain orders what customers demand : not addressed;")
print("    each tier reads the tier below as demand and adds its")
print("    own rebuild, so a rise of " + str(shop_rise) + " at the shop is " + str(factory_rise) + " at the")
print("    factory, " + str(amplification_by_the_factory) + " times over")
print("")
print("a signal passed through a chain of sensible rules is reshaped by each of them;")
print("what reaches the far end is the customers' change wearing three layers of")
print("other people's prudence, and the factory builds for the prudence")
print("")
print("Every tier orders exactly what its rule says - real sales plus a real safety")
print("stock rebuild. But each tier reads the one below as demand and adds its own")
print("rebuild, so the shop's rise of " + str(shop_rise_per_myriad) + " per ten thousand reaches the factory as")
print("" + str(factory_rise_per_myriad) + ", " + str(amplification_by_the_factory) + " times over, until every tier orders on the shop's own sales.")

shop demand, before / after     : 100 / 110, up 1000 per ten thousand

retailer orders                 : 120 (sales 110 + rebuild 10)
wholesaler orders               : 140 (sales 120 + rebuild 20)
factory builds                  : 180 (sales 140 + rebuild 40)

rise at the factory             : 8000 per ten thousand
amplification, shop to factory  : 8 times

each tier's order
  reads : its own real sales
  safety stock : exactly one week, restored when drawn down
  order : sales seen plus the stock to restore
  intent : order what the demand needs
  tiers ordering outside their rule : 0
  verdict : EVERY TIER ORDERED EXACTLY WHAT ITS RULE SAYS

  each tier reading its real sales and restoring its real
  safety stock is the part done right here, and it is why
  no tier is guessing or panicking

the whip
  the shop's rise : 10, the only real change
  the retailer : sees 10 more sold, orders 10 more plus 10 to
    rebuild, a rise of 20
  the wholesaler : sees a rise of 20 and does the same, 40
  the factory : sees 40 and does the same, 80
  so the factory builds for : a rise 8 times the one
    customers made

the factory's view
  demand it planned for : 180 a week
  demand customers have : 110 a week
  is any tier's order wrong by its rule : no
  is the factory reading customer demand : no; it is reading
    three tiers of safety-stock rebuilding stacked on it
  next week, when no tier needs to rebuild : orders fall
    back through the chain, and the factory sees a crash

null control - every tier orders on the shop's sales
  factory rise, ordering on the tier below : 80
  factory rise, ordering on shop sales : 10
  rise the shared signal removes : 70
  no customer and no rule changed; each tier stopped
  reading the tier below as the customer

what a cover-sales-and-restore-stock rule guarantees
  each tier orders what its own sales and stock require :
    exactly, real sales, real safety stock
  the chain orders what customers demand : not addressed;
    each tier reads the tier below as demand and adds its
    own rebuild, so a rise of 10 at the shop is 80 at the
    factory, 8 times over

a signal passed through a chain of sensible rules is reshaped by each of them;
what reaches the far end is the customers' change wearing three layers of
other people's prudence, and the factory builds for the prudence

Every tier orders exactly what its rule says - real sales plus a real safety
stock rebuild. But each tier reads the one below as demand and adds its own
rebuild, so the shop's rise of 1000 per ten thousand reaches the factory as
8000, 8 times over, until every tier orders on the shop's own sales.

Trace event types